from the economic changes. It was not so much the
absolute scale of poverty but the nature of social differentiation and the
collapse of social guarantees which led to a tangible level of
dissatisfaction amongst the populations and a move towards the left. After
the return to power of the former communist parties in Poland, Hungary,
Slovakia and Bulgaria, however, the processes of social division continued.
The new capital accumulated at the beginning of the 1990's attempted to play
the leading role in the processes of privatisation and to accrue more and
more wealth. Mass privatisation, most significantly in Russia, led to the
concentration of privatisation vouchers in the hands of a small group of
extremely wealthy owners who acquired the ownership of enormous production
potential for a fraction of its real value. To a lesser extent the same
thing happened in Czechoslovakia and a similar picture of social division
can be expected in Bulgaria after mass privatisation.
The post-communist countries are experiencing a common crisis of
identity and profound political contradictions. If they lead to a
stratification of society into a small group of wealthy people (5-7%) and a
large group of people deprived of any ownership of the means of production,
this will be a backwards step. In reality these countries will return to a
state from which the industrialised countries have already progressed and to
outdated social models. If the division of ownership in Eastern Europe
creates class divisions then it is extremely possible for this to create a
chain reaction with exceptionally adverse consequences for the process of
reform and the transition to a Fourth Civilisation. Clearly the collapse of
the Eastern European societies into classes will not send them into the New
Civilisation but will hold them back in the grips of the old. The peoples of
these countries will have to experience its contradictions and to struggle
with the problems which the Western countries have already overcome. This
will cause difficulties for the socialisation of ownership and will render
the reconstruction of the market impossible leading to a revival of
bureaucracy and the bureaucratic state. We should not be surprised that such
a transition will not only return the former communist parties to power but
also the "strong hand" governments of corrupt politicians and combinations
of the two. This will be extremely unfavourable for the development of the
Eastern European states and at the same time it will be a retarding factor
for the whole of world development, especially if such processes are allowed
to take place in Russia, China and other larger countries.
The question arises whether it is at all possible for the former
totalitarian states to make the transition directly to the Fourth
Civilisation. My response is entirely positive. The relatively good material
infrastructure of the Eastern European countries, the high level of
education and culture of the population as well as the experience of
communism as one type of social development are all factors which create a
basis for the transition to new types of relations without passing through
the phase of initial capital accumulation. The technology of such a
transition has been inadequately researched but it is absolutely applicable
on the basis ofthe results of the period between 1990-1995.
Above all, in order to accomplish such a process of development and to
approach the level of the industrialised countries and the trends of the
Fourth Civilisation it will be necessary to achieve some sort of minimal
political consensus. If confrontations and instability continue, and if
behind the facade of the "political struggle" corruption and crime is
allowed to flourish, the post-communist countries will regress at least
30-50 years into the past. Only common will and the consolidation of society
will redirect their material and cultural heritage towards the framework of
the emerging new civilisation.
The second great problem is the redistribution of ownership. As I have
already mentioned, this process has begun with restitution, or the return of
property nationalised at the end of the 1940's. This process, if it takes
place within real limits, will throw the post-communist states into serious
conflicts which are unnecessary at the end of the 20th century. The example
of the Bulgaria is particularly indicative. However, even if privatisation
is carried out without restitution, as in Russia and if it is carried out
with the out-dated methods of the time of "wild capitalism", this will not
lead to any positive results. The main aim of privatisation is to dynamise
the post-communist societies, to form civil societies and for the majority
of the citizens to receive some form of ownership of the means of
production. A society of voluntarily associated owners is the alternative to
totalitarianism, the class society and primitive capitalism. In order to
achieve this a number of specialised privatisation methods will be required.
The most successful experience has been demonstrated in the Czech Republic
and Slovenia and, albeit under different conditions, in the former East
Germany. The main aim of these methods in my opinion should be: firstly to
demonopolise the large-scale enterprises inherited from totalitarian times,
to preserve those with the greatest potential and to transform them into
trans-national corporations; secondly, a reliable stock exchange system
should be developed wherein a significant part of these enterprises can be
sold by means of mass privatisation, market methods and the substitution of
debt against ownership; thirdly, the necessary legislative framework needs
to be developed to allow for privatisation by management teams as well as
the possibility for as many small and medium enterprises as possible to be
established for the use and gradual purchase by citizens; fourthly, the
possibility for workers' collectives to receive without payment ownership in
the enterprises in which they are employed.
The eventual aim of such policies will be for the majority of the
population within 5-10 years to integrated within the structures of
ownership in the aims of establishing the economic basis for a civil
society.
The third major problem of the post-communist countries will be their
integration within the world economy. As can be seen from table 6, between
1985-1993 and 1989-1993 five Eastern European states which were analysed
achieved an increase in their trade with the EU. Although slowly, the market
share of these countries in the European market began to increase.
Nevertheless the processes of rapprochement analysed using the Maastricht
criteria are extremely contradictory and slow (table 7). This shows that on
the whole the process of the integration of the Eastern European countries
into the EU will be delayed. The initial predictions of 10-15 years to
integration have been revised to the years 2005-2010 at the earliest.
Table 6
Trade in industrial goods between the EU and the countries of
Central and Eastern Europe.
(millions of ECU at current prices, market share in % of the
entire trade of the EU with other countries).
CEE
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Import EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993*
5146
7532
8222
9303
10525
13598
16736
12674
3,56
3,23
2,80
2,76
3,06
3,63
4,43
4,55
242
362
350
398
441
600
762
572
0,17
0,16
0,12
0,12
0,13
0,16
0,20
0,21
1139
1875
1950
2228
2401
3678
5102
3840
0,79
0,80
0,66
0,66
0,70
0,98
1,35
1,38
1131
1616
1816
2182
2547
3138
3554
2468
0,78
0,69
0,62
0,65
0,74
0,84
0,94
0,89
1709
2149
2552
2842
3962
4973
5984
4662
1,18
0,92
0,87
0,85
1,15
1,33
1,58
1,67
924
1530
1555
1654
1174
1209
1334
1132
0,64
0,66
0,53
0,49
0,34
0,32
0,35
0,41
Export EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993**
6808
8648
8412
10079
10522
15213
18875
15914
3,53
2,63
2,58
2,73
2,84
3,99
4,79
5,27
681
1378
1300
1323
818
895
977
777
0,35
0,42
0,40
0,36
0,22
0,24
0,25
0,26
1126
1730
1969
2142
2343
3428
5628
4582
0,58
0,53
0,60
0,58
0,63
0,90
1,43
1,52
1424
2254
2123
2673
2624
3136
3745
3173
0,74
0,69
0,65
0,72
0,71
0,82
0,95
1,05
2206
2324
2460
3299
3717
6663
6967
6051
1,14
0,71
0,75
0,89
1,00
1,75
1,77
2,00
1371
963
559
642
1021
1091
1557
1332
0,71
0,29
0,17
0,17
0,28
0,29
0,40
0,44
Eurostat and European Commission Services
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 63).
* January--September
** January--September
Table 7
Do the countries of Central and Eastern Europe fulfil the criteria
for membership of the EU as set out in Maastricht?
Criteria
Bulgari
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Slovakia
Complete convertibility
Strong Central Bank
Low inflation
Low public debt
Low budget deficit
Low interest rate
Convertible currency
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
yes
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
National sources; OECD -- estimates and projections, Qvigstad, 1992;
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 39).
The fourth problem is the integration of the technology of the Fourth
Civilisation and the reconstruction of their own industries. The opening-up
of the markets of the Eastern European countries and the invasion of
competitors from all four corners of the world has created a danger that
some of the more progressive sectors of the economy will collapse. In
certain countries, Bulgaria for example, there is evidence of a process of
detechnologisation or the reduction of high-technology production in
comparison with the 1980's. The high level of outdated and worn-out
industrial machinery in Slovakia and Bulgaria has delayed progress. This
criterion is proof of how important it is to have a correct policy for
foreign investment and skilfully to combine the pre--1989 achievements with
world markets and technological structures.
The fifth problem is the development of a market infrastructure
adequate for the New Civilisation. To this extent the countries of the
Visegrad group and Slovenia are undoubtedly in a position of advantage in
comparison with the other former socialist countries. There is no doubt that
after the fall of the Berlin Wall the Eastern European peoples began a
process of rapprochement and integration with the world economy. The
universal processes of globalisation and the spirit of the Fourth
Civilisation have not left the post-communist countries untouched. The great
choice with which they were faced between 1989 and 1990 was totalitarianism
or democracy and a market economy. The great choice between 1993-6 and the
end of the century will be primitive capitalism or new civilisation.
An analysis of the economic and political situation shows that the
former members of COMECON are no longer an homogenous regional group. This
is due not only to the collapse of the common Eastern European market but
also to the different policies which the different governments have been
pursuing. In the mid-1990's the division between Central and Eastern Europe
was an artificially imposed concept. Now, however, it seems more realistic.
The Central European countries, sometimes referred to as the Visegrad Group
and Slovenia, are integrating significantly more rapidly than the remaining
countries and economically are becoming quite distinct. The second group has
a slightly different fate - the three small former Baltic republics of the
USSR who are seeking a channel into Europe by means of developing closer
ties with the Scandinavian countries, Germany and the U.K. Finally, there is
the third group of the Balkan states - Bulgaria, Rumania, Yugoslavia,
Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia where internal disputes and conflicts have
delayed their development significantly. The division of the former members
of COMECON into separate regional groups could lead to delays in their
integration the European Union and increase in the internal disputes.
After the post-communist countries, Russia and China are of particular
significance. With their size and resources they have an independent and
significant geo-political role. In Russia the problems of transition are
many time more complex than those of the smaller countries of Central and
Eastern Europe. Political stability, the expansion of the market
infrastructure and the redistribution of ownership are, in my opinion, the
strategic problems of this great power. It is very likely that as we
approach the beginning of the Fourth Civilisation Russia will for a long
time remain in the orbit of state, corporative capitalism. Arguments in
support of this are the concentration of privatised giant state industry in
the hands of a very small group of the population and the close connections
between this group and the state bureaucracy. China without any doubt will
increase its role in the world which in its turn will increase its political
stability and the continued awesome development of its massive economy. A
open question for China will be the choice between a single party system and
political pluralism with the preservation of the stability and integrity of
the country.
As can be seen, the post-communist countries are divided not by
criteria of democracy-communism but by types of democracy and their
closeness to the Fourth Civilisation. Some of them will become integrated
quite quickly into the directions of progress, others will turn back to the
era of corporate, semi-state capitalism. There is no doubt that the
transition will be complex and drawn-out and will take place in stages and
with the deepening differentiation between the Eastern European countries.
The direction of this transition in the long-run will lead to integration
with the economic and political systems of the most developed countries in
the world.
4. THE APPROACH AND THE END OF THE "THIRD WORLD"
Integration leads either to imperialist violence or the rapprochement
of social systems and the improved conditions of life.
U
ntil the end of the 1980's politicians and academics divided the world
into three parts: capitalist, socialist and the Third World - the world of
the economically backwards countries. Ideologues on the two sides of the
Berlin Wall divided the Third World into those countries with capitalist
systems and those with socialist orientation. Today, this "structure" has
entirely lost any meaning. The socialist world has evaporated and capitalism
has become transformed into something else. The "Third World" has changed
and no longer represents a community of countries with similar
charasteristics.
Until 6 or 7 years ago the Third World was defined as something
unspecific which would eventually merge with the first or the second. Today,
however, one has to use different criteria in evaluating any particular
country. In my opinion these criteria are based on the outlines of the new,
Fourth Civilisation, from those processes and phenomena which symbolise the
leading trends of modern progress. I would place the accent on three of them
in particular: 1. the share of high-technology production and activities
within the GDP; 2. the structure of ownership and social groups;3. the level
of socialisation of ownership and the integration of the market;4. the
openness of countries and the stability of their national manufacturing and
culture; 5. the GDP per head of population.
By using these criteria quantitively and qualitively we can propose
another global structure to the countries of the world. The first group is
of those countries which are symbols of human progress and which are in
transition from the Third Civilisation and to a large extent are the basis
for the Fourth Civilisation. For them the advent of the new civilisation is
already irreversible. I would include here the members of the European group
with the exception of Greece and Portugal, the USA and Canada, Japan,
Australia, New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Iceland, Malta and
a number of other states. The second group is of those countries which on
the basis of certain factors are on the edge of the Fourth Civilisation or
remain within the traditions of the 20th century. They are on the threshold
of the new civilisation but are essentially at a different level of progress
from those countries within the first group. I could include here the new
Asian Dragons - Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea,
Taiwan as well as countries like Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Costa Rica,
Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. The third group would include such countries
which have an industrial or semi-industrial structure and state capitalist
or some form of oligarchical or monarchist social structure.: Russia, China,
Rumania, Yugoslavia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the
UAE, Pakistan, the majority of Latin American countries, Tunisia, Egypt,
Morocco, the Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico and a number of
others. These countries have not yet achieved political stability and
economic balance. The fourth and last group includes countries whose
manufacturing and social relations are partially within the third and
partially within earlier structures of civlisation. These are the majority
of the African, some Asian nations and a number of countries of the Near
East. These countries are sometimes referred to as the "forgotten" nations
and need special help and programmes to link them to the rest of the world
and to overcome problems of poverty and illness.
Is it possible to speak of a common transition of civilisation when no
more than one fifth of the world's population lives in conditions similar to
those which we refer to as the transition to the Fourth Civilisation and
more than one third in conditions typical of the transition from the Second
to the Third? The basis for a positive answer to this question is
integration, the speed at which countries are coming together in the
conditions of globalisation. As a consequence of the openness of the large
majority of countries and the expansion of the world market the transfer of
new technologies and the management model is much easier and faster than at
any other time in the history of mankind.
The example with the countries of South East Asia shows that given a
suitable political climate countries can penetrate world markets and achieve
significant results. The rate of development in South Korea over the past 30
years has allowed it to overtake many of the Eastern European countries
which in the first half of the 1960's were significantly more
advanced.[48] The example of the Asian Dragons will be followed
by a number of individual states in Northern Africa and the Near East. Thus
we can speak of the collapse and the restructuring of the countries of the
"Third World". The Eastern Europeans have great potential. Other countries
such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and South Africa also have strong
possibilities. They and a dozen or so smaller countries will gradually begin
to approach the highly developed countries - the leading figures in the new
civilisation.
For more than half a century, many of the leaders of the Third World
have been looking for their own direction in the struggle to combat poverty
and make progress. Ghandi and Neru in India, Mao and Dun Saopin in China,
Castro in Cuba, Sengor, Tutu and Kenyatta in Africa have conducted their own
experiments with varying degrees of success. The main question for all the
poorly developed nations is not to demonstrate their uniqueness but to
become incorporated into the trends of progress and the post-industrialised
Fourth Civilisation. The fear that foreign investments, progress in the West
and the open commodity and financial markets will undermine national pride
and specific cultural features is not always justified. Such dependence
exists only in the most corrupt regimes and where an imperialistic type of
dependence has been allowed to develop.
Technological and social progress even in the conditions of the open
market does not inevitably lead to the death of national cultures and
identity. In fact the opposite is often the case. The experience of China,
South Korea and Singapore has shown that only against the background of a
well developed economy can national and ethnic culture be preserved for the
future.
In the global world national identity and specific cultural features
will manifest themselves only at a certain level of economic development
when poverty and backwardness has been overcome. Nevertheless it will be
difficult for the dreams of the apostles of Black Africa or Che Guevara to
come true. The closed nature of the societies, corrupt regimes, the lack of
law and order and ethnic calm will continue to maintain the countries of the
"Third World" in the orbit of the past.
When I refute the division of the countries of the world into three
groups within the bi-polar model of the world, I, naturally, realise how
important it is to adopt a clear position in support of an alternative for
future development. The current lack of order and chaos has made many
proponents of change wait to see what direction change will take. My
understanding of this question is that for the next few years we shall live
in a multi-sector world with an enormous diversity of economic and social
conditions with enormous differences in economic levels. When I speak of the
multiplicity of sectors, I mean a multiplicity of political and economic
forms, political systems and specific governmental decisions.
At the same time I can see no other prospect for development apart from
growing integration and the gradual reduction of differences conditioned by
the integration of world financial markets. To this extent the multiplicity
of sectors is a transitional state despite the relative stability of the
world. The differences inherent in the form of ownership and political
systems will gradually disappear. On the other hand economic advances will
allow for the protection of the cultural diversity of the world and
spiritual identity.
5. BALANCED DEVELOPMENT
Post-capitalism and post-communism are stages inthe process of the
collapse of the Third Civilisation. The major question is what will replace
it? I believe that it will replaced by the societies of the Fourth
Civilisation -- societies of balanced development.
R
epresentatives of individual historical eras are bound to the limits of
their own time and are unable to see the world as a whole. All the major
ideological doctrines of the last few centuries have been linked to the need
for the resolution of group, regional or class contradictions. Global
thought was and continues to have little attraction for philosophers and
politicians. Even in the 20th century when world globalisation is gradually
on the increase, ideological and political doctrines have developed in
accordance with the conditions in one or a group of countries and specific
ideological models have imposed themselves through force.
Marxism-Leninism claimed to be a teaching for the whole of humanity.
However, despite Marx's attempt to evaluate the Asian methods of production
his doctrine did not take into account the cultural and historical
development of China and India. The imposition of Marxist or western
bourgeois models upon completely different cultural and historical roots was
a manifestation of philosophical and ideological monopolism. The 20th has
century provided us with many forms of Marxism and Liberalism but with the
increase in democracy more local cultural features have begun to dominate
over ideologies.
Today, while the Third Civilisation is in a process of disintegration
many things have not yet changed. The global approach has made its mark and
is no longer considered absurd or abstract challenge. The UN has taken on
more responsibility and increased its role in the world. A number of new
formations involved in global issues have arisen. One major result of such
processes was the summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 at which
politicians from all over the world gathered in the name of the survival of
humanity. However, up to now these efforts have not yet produced any serious
results. Despite the conflicts evident in the world, despite the complete
irrationality of manufacturing structures, despite the continuing
destruction of forests and cultivable land, humanity continues to exist in
the condition of nationalist thinking or class, social and other types of
doctrines.
While global reseach is mainly directed towards environmental and
philosophical problems, there are still those who aspire to defend one
system, one model or one culture. In the risk of repeating myself, I
consider such attempts absurd. Neither socialism, nor capitalism, not the
political models of the countries of the Third World can serve today as
universal models for life on earth. There is little doubt that globalisation
and global culture will continue to penetrate the common principles and
standards of life. However, this process will take place through
manifestations of local culture, as well as specific national, regional and
ethnic features.
The modern world will no longer accept unified "military" models of
development. The dialectics of globalisation and localisation, the advent of
the new civilisation can offer a new model. If it is democratic and not
imperialistic as in the 20th century. There is no longer any room for
universal doctrines in the new era. Universal principles and legal standards
-- yes, universal ideologies and models -- no. "Yes" because of the
inevitable integration and mutual dependence of countries, "No" because of
the resolute and growing diversity of human life.
The 20th century was a century of imperialism and forced globalisation.
The 21st century will be a century of intermixing and synthesis of different
cultures and ideas. I am convinced that the time has come to pose the
question of the type and the direction of general world development and of
the main principles and trends of the Fourth Civilisation. In this way the
danger of global chaos and the resolution of global contradictions through
myriad local wars, tension and never-ending disputes may be avoided.
At the end of the 20th century, humanity has reached a stage in its
development wherein no single nation can impose itself on others and no
single country can exist in isolation from the others. This is the effect of
globalisation and the constant increase in mutual dependence while on the
other hand there is a marked growth in the role of local cultures. After the
fall of the Berlin Wall three quarters of the population of the world now
live in conditions of free economic initiative and more than 90% of the
countries of the world have multi-party democracies. Human rights, the free
movement of information and people are becoming more and more an integral
part of life. Communism, fascism, Moaism and Polpotism have collapsed.
Liberal capitalism is being gradually eroded by the growth in new
technology, the growing role of small and medium business and anti-trust
legislation. Socialism as it was once known by so many nations has been
consigned to the past.
What then will be the typical features of global development n the 21st
century? Over the past few years many of the industrial nations of the world
have begun to speak of "sustainable development". This was initially an
environmental concept, a combination of the models of the developed Western
societies and the desire to preserve life on Earth. A number of writers have
attempted to use this concept to make more comprehensive evaluations of
future economic growth, types of manufacturing and the challenges facing
future generations.[49]
However, the concept of "sustainable development" is still unclear and
unnecessarily generalised. It is useful in that it links many varied
national models to the common problems of humanity. Its inadequacy is that
it does not analyse such fundamental questions such as global political and
economic structures, the re-distribution of ownership and authority and
control over the media etc.. However, the concept of sustainable development
does not provide an answer to the major question -- what comes after
post-capitalism and post-communism? What will be the result of their fusion?
I would link the answer to this question with the concept of balanced
development. From a micro-economic and regional point of view it is not new.
The new aspect which I have added is to link it with the global transition
to the new, Fourth Civilisation.
The first general theory of economic balance was created by L.Walras
and V.Pareto, (the Losanne school of political economy). Their aim was to
create abstract mathematical models which provided a ratio between supply
and demand. In the 19th century and the first half of the 20th A.Kurno,
W.Jevans and A.Marshall made significant contributions to the formation of
the classical views of market balance. During the second half of the 20th
century, G.Hicks and P.Samuelson formed a "political synthesis" based on the
studies by the great Swiss economists nd the classic writers on bourgeois
political economy. The Hicks-Allan model is perhaps the best expression of
market balance.[50] It combines the process of the maximum use
for each consumer within the limitations of his income and the maximum
profit for each entrepreneur within the limitations of his produce to
produce a balance between supply and demand.
L.Walras come to some particularly valuable conclusions on the role of
the state in the establishment of balance and his advocacy of the principle,
"balance of opportunity against imbalance of the the factual
situation"[51]. Walras considered the liberal "Laissez Faire"
doctrine as a pure illusion and included the regulating role of the state in
his balanced system. He supports the cooperative movement and is the only
one of many like-minded thinkers to tackle the question of ownership. To be
unaware of the work of L.Walras is to be unaware of one of the most
brilliant writers on economic and political science.
The balanced economic theory of the Lauzanne school and to a lesser
extent the school of the neo-classicists is an initial pre-condition for
what I refer to as balanced development. At a theoretical and methodological
level a number of Marx's conclusions on ownership and the state are also
useful.[52] This can also be said of the ideas of "cooperative
socialism". In contrast to L.Walras, however, I do not see balance as an
ineluctable state or a description of the market but as part of the general
reforms of civilisation. The difference is that I approach balance not from
the point of view of the conditionally limited market but from a global
point of view. In my opinion, balance is not an ideal model but a trend.
There is no eternal balance, there is politics and specific historical
conditions within which it can be achieved. Moreover, I believe that balance
is not only an economic category but a tangential point for economic,
political and cultural processes.
The great modern significance of balanced development comes from the
bankruptcy of "communist nationalisation" and the inadequacy of liberal
doctrines. During the entire period of the 20th century these two concepts
did not contribute either balance of harmony. In fact the opposite -- they
caused innumberable contradictions and hundreds of wars. Pure liberalism
divided the world into the rich and the poor and will clearly continue to do
so as long as it is predominant in the world. Communism, in its very first
stage, brought about the total nationalisation of life and killed freedom
and civil societies. The idea of balanced development is an expression of
the new theoretical synthesis and the link between it and the globalisation
of the world.
From a national domestic point of view balanced development is a trend,
as well as a supporting policy, towards the redistribution of ownership
amongst the largest possible number of citizens and the gradual limitation
of the monopolistic role of families and individuals. Balanced development
is not a revolutionary but a reformist concept -- an expression of the
post-capitalist and post-communist development of the world. To this extent
it is a generalised expression not only of the division and redistribution
of ownership but also its socialisation. Integration and mutual dependence
within the manufacturing processes and financial operations, the transition
from a chaotic to an organised and computerised market presuppose the
interweaving of interests of the traditional and the new social groups and
strata. The gradual, logical and deliberate balancing of the market provides
above all for general economic balance. It is here that the Hicks-Allen
equation needs significant enhancement to take into account the increased
consumption of services and the role of new art forms in the industrialised
states.
At high levels of economic balance the objective role of the state in
the redistribution of ownership is reduced and vice versa. In a balanced
society the state fulfils a supportive and regulative role up to the moment
of the establishment of self-regulation and the horizontal balance of the
system. Neither the state, nor the civil society has permanent limits but
gradually during the processes of its maturation society overwhelms the
state, not the other way around. Of course, this does not mean that
centralised regulation will die or that the nation state will disappear
tomorrow.
Balanced development presupposes "balanced" human rights for all. The
basic pre-condition for the consolidation of balance is the provision of the
individual rights of citizens, their freedom to choose, to associate and to
be protected from the hindrances of bureaucracy. For this reason the corner
stones of democracy -- the freedom of speech and the press, the free
movement of people, goods and capital are the fundamental basis for balanced
development. This also requires the involvement of the state in the economy
and other areas on the principle of minimal sufficiency, as a guarantor of
civil rights and a factor in the formation of a dynamic social environment.
In contrast to liberalism, however, balanced development is possible only
with the redistribution of ownership amongst the growing part of the
population and its socialisation and integration. There are clear
differences between balanced development and the traditional (until the
1970's) concepts of social democracy. While the foundations of social
democracy defined a priori the role of the state within society and
presupposes nationalisation and greater or lesser levels of state control,
balanced development presupposes the minimalisation of the role of the state
with simultaneous horizontal socialisation. This excludes monopolism by a
small group of the extremely rich and the state bureaucracy. Only in this
context can there be any "balance" of difference social groups or relative
"balance of opportunity" (L.Walras) and social justice.
Balanced development presupposes the association of different ethnic
groups and cultures within the framework of the national state and the
global world. In general this concept is an expression of the expansion of
the relations within a civil society and the current notion of human rights.
Balanced development is inseparable from the legislative resolution of a
series of social rights (life, health, work, education, maternity, pensions
etc..) not only as the responsibility of the executive authorities but as
the responsibility of civil society. This takes the form of social funds,
companies, charitable organisations etc. which are independent of the state.
This also leads to the need for the protection of the private life of the
individual. There can be no balanced development if the social security of
citizens is not guaranteed in a new way. This concerns the protection of the
family, women and children, pregnancy and maternity, personal, genetic,
ethnic and behavioural information.
Balanced development presupposes the existence of any specific feature
which does not negate any another, the combination and mutual harmony of all
the features of mankind and social and ethnic groups. The political regimes
and the cultures of the Third Civilisation imposed their models and cultures
through violence. The Fourth Civilisation and its main features -- balanced
development means the rejection of such practices. Most significantly, this
doctrine could become a common reality only if applied globally. It is
already clear that any further increase in the gap of imbalance between
indivual nations stimulates chaos in the world and will cause even greater
damage within the most developed countries. I recently heard someone say in
a small Bulgarian town, "How can I live peacefully, when there is poverty
all around me and rising crime?" These were the words of a well-off man who
was aware of the simple economic truth that if you are richer than others,
you become the object of their dissatisfaction. This is something which will
have to be understood in the industrialised western countries. Otherwise,
sooner or later they will be obliged to isolate themselves and to experience
the hatred of the poor.
The outcome is clear: gradually and inexorably, in accordance with the
norms of the global world, economic levels will balance out. In other words,
balanced development is only possible and necessary in the international
aspect, both as a consequence of and a precondition for the global market.
This requires changes in the international economic order and global
regulation which I will mention at a later stage. Balanced development
presupposes the creation of an environment for intermixing, cohabitation and
development within the universal market and legislative frameworks of
different cultures. Instead of cultural imperialism there will be a
muliticultural society, instead of enmity between countries with different
political and economic regimes, there will be rapprochement and a reduction
of the multiplicity of economic sectors. There will also be an new trend in
geo-politics: instead of imperialism and the domination of one or a group of
states there will be a gradual process of policentrism.
In the next chapters I will attempt to prove that the trends emerging
at the beginning of the Fourth Civilisation and its main outlining feature
-- balanced development -- are irreversible. At the same time I realise the
strength of the inertia inherited from the past and the strength of other
factors which want to delay global change. When I set out my views on
balanced development before a mixed Bulgarian political auditorium I
received two profoundly different reactions. The representatives of the
former communist party said, "You've gone too far to the right." The other
half of the auditorium occupied by members of the anti-communist groups
commented, "This is left-wing babble".
In reality balanced development is neither one nor the other. It is not
me who has gone to the right or to the left but time and human progress
which have gone forward.
Chapter Seven
OBSTRUCTIONS
1. THE DEFENDERS OF THE THIRD CIVILISATION
During the entire period of the 20th century, the representatives of
different classes, nations and blocs have battled with each other. They
created the industry of confrontation and the belief in its eternity. Today
these same people are the defenders of the Third Civilisation.
E
very historical phenomenon has its own driving forces as well as its
own obstacles. The advent of any phenomenon on the historical scene does not
come as an overnight victory -- this is the illusion of revolutionaries --
but as the result of the gradual propulsion of the driving forces against
the obstacles which always exist to the new. This is also true for the
Fourth Civilisation. The Fourth Civilisation could be accelerated or
hindered by a series of political, economic and moral factors. Although we
are living through the last years of the Third Civilisation, it still has
many adherents. The inertia of the past is alive and its advocates
constantly refer back to the old formulae, "How good it used to be in the
past." I once discussed this issue with one of the initiators of the process
of perestroika in the USSR, A.Yakovliev.[53] I asked him what was
the reason for the conservatism of the older population in Eastern Europe.
He joked in response, "Well, their wives were younger then!"
There is perhaps something a element of truth in this joke.
Conservatives in principle support the regimes and systems for which they
have struggled all their lives. They always tend to over-dramatise the
difficulties of the transition and consider any changes a deviation from the
true belief. Moreover, conservatives are not only divided according to age
or to party membership. There are pensioners who support the coming of the
new and young conservatives with opinions set in concrete. In Eastern Europe
the conservatives are concentrated mainly amongst the former communists, the
former security forces but also amongst many members of the old bourgeois
class who are involved in the struggle for political revenge and the
re-establishment of the political status quo from the time before the Second
World War. In the West the defenders of the old civilisation recognise only
the collapse of communism as a symbol of change and their own thoughts do
not go beyond their own privileges and global domination.
This is an historical paradox. The defenders of the Third Civilisation
are not divided into countries and ideologies. They are all enamoured to a
greater or lesser extent of the structures of the bi-polar model and the
cold war. Masses of anticommunists and anticapitalists, Liberals and
Marxists, capitalists and party bureaucrats, generals and spies piously
believe in their correctness and their way of life. Of course, it would be
improper to reject their past, or the struggles they waged, not the fact
that each one of them in his own way may have been an honourable defender of
his native land. However, this is not the most important element. The most
signicant thing is that they are defending models and attitudes which have
crippled the 20th century and transformed it into the most bloody century in
the history of mankind.
The 20th century will be the last century of belligerent nationalism,
imperialism and the domination of one nation over another. However, albeit
with weakened authority, those political forces who advocated such phenomena
have not disappeared. There are still insufficient guarantees that
globalisation will not give rise to imperialism or that the reaction to this
will not provide more opportunities to nationalism and autarchy. While
thought and ideological criteria remain within the framework of egoistical
national iterests, while global awareness is still undeveloped, the
conflicts of the passing century are still possible.
The question is whether we are for or against the structures of the old
civilisation -- for or against the emerging structures of the new time.
Those who dream of the renewed domination of one nation over another, of
imbalanced international economic conditions, of party and nomenclature
leaders, of media monopolism, of the eternalisation of differences in living
standards are on one side of the barricade. Yesterday the party bureaucrats
and the capitalists were opponents. Today they might even become allies in
the struggle for survival and the survival of the structures of the Third
Civilisation. Still prisoners to their old ideologies and international
confrontations they maintain those ideas and structures which could still
return us to the time of the Cold War or grant us a period of Cold Peace.
Fighting with each other, the proponents of the Third Civilisation can only
renew fears, thoughts and activities which leave us in the grips of the
past.
In Spain there is a monument to the memory of both the supporters of
Franco and the Republicans. In one and the same place, under one and the
same cross are gathered the honour and the debt, the errors and mistakes,
the greatness and the perdition of people who killed one another. The names
of the killers are illumiated by those of the victims, whatever side they
may have fought for, whatever side of the barrier they may have belonged to.
In Spain the reconciliation of history is already a fact. In Bulgaria, the
former Yugoslavia and partially in Poland there are still many people who
believed that Gorbachev was a CIA agent while in the USA there are those who
consider Clinton an American communist.
The sooner such thinking disappears, the sooner we shall become awards
of the problems and the greatness of the new civilisation. In order to
understand the new, we must forget the old language, the old categories of
division, the old enmities and prejudices. The Cold War is over but the Cold
Peace and mistrust could unknowingly lead us back to it. Unfortunately this
is not all. The life of the Third Civilisation could be prolonged via the
maintainance of the economic and political structures which were typical of
the 20th century. In most general terms, these structures can be united into
two mutually conditional phenomena, which albeit in different forms have
supported the current world conflicts. These are imperialism and nationalism
and their modern manifestations. As paradoxical as it might seem, these two
satellites of the 20th century are supported by one common culture -- that
of violence and confrontation. The alternative to violence and confrontation
is tolerance -- the recognition of differences, respect for the problems of
others, responsibility to help those who are worse off. Perhaps, it is
indeed tolerance as an alternative to violence which is the most important
feature of the political culture of the Fourth Civilisation.
2. THE GREAT THREAT -- MEDIA IMPERIALISM
With the passing of the Third Civilisation it is also possible that the
imperialist dependencies between nations will disappear. However if the
abstract liberal trends of the past continue to develop this may lead to new
forms of imperialist domination -- less overt but with equally dangerous
consequences.
T
he first manifestations of the global world were inseparably linked
with the ambitions of empire and the growing power of the most developed
countries of the time. The colonial system, international trusts and
cartels, the redistribution of the world into zones of influence and two
world wars was an expression of imperialist domination. The division of the
world into two systems and the cold war was also a form of international
imperialism.
The main slogan used by Lenin, Stalin and their followers was the
"struggle against imperialism". They, however, created a system closely
based on imperial allegiance. If Gorbachev with his power had begun a
process of the gradual reconstruction of Eastern Europe and the world,
imperialism could have been replaced by the agreed establishment of a new
world economic, informational and legislative order. I am convinced that
such a policy would have found support amongst the majority of the political
and intellectual circles in the West.
Gorbachev's failure was to allow the Eastern European regimes to
collapse without any dignity opening the way for the globalisation of the
world without removing the danger of new imperialism. The gap between the
poor and the rich remained as wide as ever. The differences in political and
military power were so different that the danger of imperialist domination
remained. Of course, it would be imprudent to suppose that imperialism might
return in its old colonial forms or to the time of the Cold War. Although
the wealth of the world is divided as unequally as 150 years ago, many
things have changed. The colonial model has been rejected by history.
Anti-monopoly legislation has put down deep roots, major changes have taken
place in peoples' awareness and the infrastructure of the UN and other world
non-governmental organisations have expanded guaranteeing the rights of all
the citizens of the earth. Thus the old type of coercive, belligerent
imperialism has for ever been consigned to the past.
I ask myself, however, whether imperialism as a method of domination of
certain nations over others has finally died. I do not think so. In fact,
the opposite may even be true. Together with the globalisation of the world
there are now new pre-conditions for a new type of imperialism, of a new
type of domination by one people over another. This, without doubt, is one
of the greatest dangers facing world development and the establishment of
new relations within civilisation. The most powerful modern force for
globalisation is the trans-national corporations. Their roles can be as
positive for development as they can lead to its deformation. At the
beginning of the 1980's the trans-national corporations accounted for one
third of the world's industrial production. Their appearance in Russia and
China after the democratisation of their regimes made them, especially in a
number of specialised branches, the absolute rulers of world production. As
a rule the trans-national corporations take national legislation into
account but in global terms they are uncontrollable. This allows them to
redistribute enormous funds and to exert influence in all spheres of social
life. In recent years the trans-national corporations have tended to
decentralise their activities and adapt them to the conditions of the
countries in which they are operating. A typical example of this are the
European operations of Ford and a number of Japanese corporations.
This, however, is insufficient. If the present state of the
distribution of global production and products is allowed to persist then
the imbalances in world development will worsen. If the status quo remains
without significant changes in the world economic order then the rich will
become richer and the poor even poorer. International imperial power in this
case will not be guaranteed by armies and conquests but via financial
operations, technology and the structures of the trans-national
corporations. The finances and management structures will remain in the most
developed countries of the world. The countries which provide cheap labour
(predominantly in Asia) will manufacture products without seeing any
significant improvement in their life while a groups of other countries
(equatorial Africa) will remain for some time to come in the grips of
poverty.
It seems as though the imperialism of the 20th century and the
domination of the super powers is on its way out. Or does it only "seem" so?
If the structures of the old civilisation are preserved for any longer this
will not only serve to delay the reform processes but it may also lead to
serious new local and world conflicts. Imperialism which was the main cause
of the crisis of the Third Civilisation might simply mutate its form.
Imagine a world in which 80% of the news, 70% of the technology, 60% of the
films and 50% of all profits are created in two or three countries. Imagine
that all other countries are dependent on those news broadcasts and that the
awareness of their peoples is modelled by a group of media magnates. Does
this not closely resemble some of the predictions made by George Orwell?
Will it not lead in the long term to reactions from the majority of
countries and peoples?
I would call this phenomenon electronic or media imperialism. By this I
mean the monopolisation of the world's media and culture by individual
nations and trans-national groups. The danger of such a system dominating
the world is evident. If globalisation proceeds in this way, if the global
world does not turn into a world of mono-truths and mono-cultures
disseminated by one or a number of centres than this will lead to a mutation
of human development and will render us dependent on new empires. Today the
ambitions of empire are not manifested through wars of conquest and battles
for resources but in the endeavour to dominate as many sectors of markets,
cultures and media regions as possible. There are only a few countries and
corporations in the world which can afford the development of world-wide
television networks. Only few can survive in the sphere of super
investments. National legislation is powerless. This allows for unbelievable
global power. It can make people accept standards, buy goods and accept
truths broadcast from the screen by a group of media magnates. I do not
think I am oversimplifying the situation. I am convinced that the majority
of the owners of the world media are conscious of their responsibilities to
the citizens of the world. I believe that Ted Turner the founder of CNN is
one of these. His company promotes respect for the culture of all the
countries of the world. However, despite the efforts of such people the
consequences of media imperialism can be dramatic. The danger is that the
television and radio channels of the world are monopolised by the
representatives of those countries who have the historical advantage over
the rest of the world. The USA, Europe and Japan are the leading countries
in this respect. Russia, China and a number of other countries are
relatively well protected because of their scale and their capabilities. But
what about the rest? What will happen to the culture of the smaller and the
poorer nations, their culture and their identity?
If the trend of the 1980's and early 1990's continues and if global
media continue to express the positions and the cultural policies of but a
handful of countries this will strike a serious blow to many other countries
and peoples and will have a general delaying effect on the processes leading
to the advent of the new civilisation.
To begin with a large number of small cultures will disappear taking
with them the identity of many peoples. As can be seen in a number of
countries this will cause defensive reactions and lead to protective
nationalism. In the end this will cause complex political conflicts and will
turn the world into a world of a small group of dominant nations. Electronic
or media imperialism is the remnants of the Third Civilisation, reborn into
its final possible form of the domination of one people over another.
I see the solution to media imperialism in pluralism and the gradual
construction of national electronic media in the poorer countries and in
multicultural policies of the world television media. For at least the next
20--30 years cultural and media production will be concentrated in the hands
of a small group of countries. During this period it will be necessary to
form a new attitude which takes into account the interests of the smaller
and poorer nations and cultures. The problem does not end here. It also
concerns the cinema, video, cable television networks and satellite
television. Clearly the new media technology can be used to stimulate world
development, but at the same time it could lead to the destruction of the
traditions of many peoples. A major question, especially in the conditions
of the transition, is how will we use the new technologies and what will be
the consequences for world development.
3. POST-MODERN NATIONALISM
Nationalism as we knew it in the 20th century is the antipathe of the
new civilisation, the global world, the intermixing of national cultures.
Its chances of survival depend on it changing its limits and forms.
T
he Fourth Civilisation will be a time of openness hiterto unseen in the
world. However, it will also involve a difficult, sometimes painful
combination of different cultures and economics. We would be completely
naive, however to believe that this "intermixing" will come about
automatically simply because culture and economies are becoming globalised.
If the processes are left to blind chance, the world will find itself beset
with many local and regional conflicts, local wars between ethnic groups,
religions and cultures.
In practice this means the artificial blocking of globalisation, new
contradictions and in the long run, the restoration of confrontationalism.
Although such a danger is also posed by the "march of the poor" and by the
reaction against media imperialism, the major resource of such a gloomy
prospect is undoubtedly nationalism. John Lukac defined nationalism as the
greatest political force on the planet. Although I doubt whether this
conclusion is absolutely precise, I find myself concurring that nationalism
is still very stubborn and persistent especially when one takes into account
the inertia of the political thinking of the past. For the whole of the 20th
century nationalism has been the driving force, notwithstanding the official
"domination" and propaganda of communist, liberal, socialist and other
ideologies. Very frequently these ideologies have been but a facade for
nationalism. Stalinism and Nazism are perhaps the best examples of this.
Can globalisation and nationalism be reconciled? This appears possible
only if we equate nationalism with something new, if it changes from what it
was in the 20th century and does not stand in the way of globalisation.
Otherwise nationalism will find itself in very serious conflict with
objective trends in the development of the modern world. On the other hand,
globalisation will either be a bridge leading to the resolution of total
poverty of billions of people or it will stimulate the most mutated forms of
nationalism. Let us think for a moment about this important mutuality.
Globalisation which unifies the world by destroying local customs and
traditions and by killing small cultures cannot avoid causing mutation and
reaction. Consequently, only globalisation based on and stimulates diversity
can be an alternative to reactionary nationalism and stimulus for the
structures of the Fourth Civilisation. At the end of the 20th century after
the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the dominant factor of world development is
openness. There is now only a small groups of states (e.g. North Korea)
which maintain policies of isolation and the absolutism of their own
traditions.
At the end of the 20th century, nationalism might reappear as an
ideological movement protected by culture and religion. Ideological
nationalism is a relatively rare phenomenon in the modern world although in
a certain number of poorly-developed countries of Africa and Asia it might
seen as a panacea for the resolution of serious problems. North Korean
communism, for example, is ideological nationalism wrapped in a mask of
dead-end ideology. A more widespread and typical form of nationalism at the
end of the 20th century is defensive nationalism. This may appear in any
country which feels under threat, for the survival of its economy from the
invasion of imported goods, its culture -- from the invasion of foreign
information and cultural products. Defensive nationalism is not necessarily
cultural or religious. It often appears as a result of economic reasons or
is linked with historical and political aims of particular nations. The
question is not whether this is the "defence" of an individual small culture
from the invasion of foreign media or "protection" against an undisputed and
powerful culture from the presence of foreign immigrants. In both cases this
leads to conflicts, isolation, blocks the processes of globalisation and
gives rise to chimera and xenophobia. Ethnonationalism is similar in
character and is also widespread. The explosion in ethnic self-confidence
and self-determination is a direct and explicable reaction in the struggle
for survival in the conditions of globalisation. When, however, this
self-awareness has specific historical, cultural and religious roots it can
give rise to serious conflicts.
Why is nationalism on the rise? Why has this happened despite the
continuing intensive processes of globalisation? Why in many places has
nationalism taken on extreme forms and lead to military conflicts?
The reason is that the surge of nationalist feelings is a reaction to
informational and cultural imperialism, to the invasion of the world media
and trans-national coporations. In such conditions is has become convenient
and fashionable for politicians and ordinary people to re-identify
themselves as the members of a regional family. In the poorer countries the
rise in national self-determination is a result of former humiliations and
repressed ethnic awareness. Before the fall of the Berlin Wall the new
nationalism was less important than the struggle between the two world
systems. Today, however, this is not the case. National survival and
self-determination has replaced Marxist and Leninist teaching in the East
and the liberal-conservative doctrines in the West. They have filled the
emotional, spiritual, economic and political vacuum almost totally
unhindered. Finally, self-identification and its consequent nationalism
within modern conditions has become possible as a result of the reduced
authority of the nation state as a consquence of globalisation.
Nationalism is not the only, but undoubtedly the major reason for the
possible new division of the world into opposing economic or military and
political blocs. The regrouping of countries into new economic alliances is
a part of the geo-political restructuring of the world. Here the danger is
in the trend for the divisions to turn into confrontation and the bi-polar
model to be replaced with a new bi- or tri-polar oppositional structure.
What will predominate in the future the global prospects for the Fourth
Civilisation or new regional isolation? Nationalism, combined with regional
autarchy or forms of the new open world society? I believe that the answer
to this question will still be unclear for the next few decades. There is an
undisputed trend towards global integration and the advent of the new
civilisation. It is inevitable and it will continue. However, the question
whether this process will involve a new phase of world conflicts and
collapses, whether there is a danger of evil egoism dominating the world
will depend to a very great extent on the means and forms of globalisation.
4. THE EGOISM OF POLITICIANS
The responsibility of politicians is not to incite conflict but to
resolve them, not to serve the people of the past but to open up the
potential for the future.
T
he advent of the New Civilisation is indisputably irreversible.
However, when it will come and what controversies it will bring with it
depends to a large extent on the modern political leaders. There is grounds
to speak of the possibility of the formation of new global elites in
accordance with the great structural changes on a world scale. They will be
above all the leaders of the trans-national corporations and other
international companies, international traders, representatives from the
world of show business and intellectuals who identify their lives with the
progress of the whole world.
Would it be correct to say that the majority of contemporary world
politicians are the defenders and advocates of the Fourth Civilisation?
Hardly. The mass of people seem to be conservative defenders of the Third
Civilisation. There are exceptions, of course, such as Jacques Delor, Hans
van der Bruk, Leo Tindemans and other architects of European integration.
Other exceptions include those politicians who have contributed much to
world peace such as Bill Clinton, Itsach Rabin, Edward Shevardnadze and many
others whose world view is more global than local.
Unfortunately, the majority of modern politicians are influenced not by
global responsibilities but purely local and national interests. This local
egoism is above all a product of the political structures themselves. In
every country where there is a pluralist structure the party leaders have
the responsibility to their own parties or at best to their countries while
members of parliament are responsible to their constituents. Even when the
level of education and intellect of the politicians makes them aware of the
interests of others their dependency on the national and local systems
renders them powerless before the challenges of the New Civilisation.
Minimal efforts are necessary to bring a halt to infant mortality all over
the world and the funds needed to finance this are less that 1% of the
budgets of the industrialised world. Young people at universities are more
interested in the resolution of environmental problems than the elected
representatives of the nations. However, the egoism of politicians is a
product of the electoral systems and the necessity for each politician to
defend first and foremost the current interests of his electors. In this way
the richest countries and peoples of the world are protecting their own
interests above all and the problems of the starving and childrens'
illnesses remain in the periphery of their thoughts.
The political forces which should work to establish the Fourth
Civilisation are not yet clearly identified. They are somewhere amongst the
different interests and competition of the trans-national corporations,
amongst the group of leaders of the major nations and the representatives of
the intellectual community and environmental movements etc.. Despite the
successes of the New Civilisation, despite the growing global awareness,
these forces are insufficient. Clearly, for an indefinite period of time the
majority of politicians will play a conservative, rather than a progressive
role in the furtherment of global relations. Today the political awareness
of the majority of people involved in such activities goes as far as
agreeing to inter-state positions almost exclusively on the basis of
national interests. The expansion of global problems is still in no-man's
land.
There is a clear need for changes in the culture and the awareness of
the political elite as well as changes to the political systems. One has to
admire the majority of modern European politicians for their constancy and
stubborn resilience with which they have built the European Union. It is not
customs mechanisms nor the development of a prototype European parliament
which should serve as shining examples to the rest of the world but the
gradual development over a period of forty years of the dynamic processes of
the European idea. However, even here there are a number of examples where
the European idea has been compromised by national ambitions and prejudices
or has been used demagogically for local political interests. British,
French and German members of the EU parliament acknowledge the interests of
those who do not want to give up its privileges and to accept their
challenges of economic and political integration. Analyses have shown that
these are people who put priority on the interests of the manufacturers in
their constituencies or a simply victims of limited political thought.
The main reason for the egoism of politicians is inherent the nature of
the political systems, in the national limitations of the concept of
political responsibility, in the weakness of the link between the electoral
mechanisms and the concern for future generations.
5. MILITANT RELIGIONS
When a shell exploded in the market place in Sarajevo and killed dozens
of people, a young woman cried out, "Allah, have revenge for me..." A friend
of mine from Serbia told me how a detachment of Muslims in Bosnia raped a
group of women and them murdered them... The hatred which he spoke was
enough to last him for the rest of his life.
T
he ethnic war and cleansing in Bosnia, the religious attacks in
Algeria, the fundamentalist attacks in Egypt, the victory of the Islamic
party in Turkey, ethnic and religious problems in Iran, Iraq, Northern
Ireland, Israel and Palestine, India and dozens of other places all over the
world are all steeped in the blood of continuing religious conflicts. They
are sometimes referred to as the militant religions. Perhaps this is
correct. Religion and faith is the greatest unifying principle, the
strongest mass feeling overwhelming emotions, traditions, indignation and
interests and unites them under a common will. Whoever captures this will
shall be victorious. It is true that there is no life without faith just as
there is no matter without spirit. No-one can deny that the major
traditional religions have survived for many thousands on this earth and
they will clearly survive for many more. Religions have learnt how to adapt
to new processes and phenomena, to demonstrate flexibility and to
acknowledge the needs of the people. Some call this pragmatism, others call
it hypocrisy.
The great challenge of the modern day which faces all world religions
is should they adapt to the global world or should they continue to fight
over their old conquests. The dilemma is either to adapt to the open and
modern world or to defend the life and traditions of the past, to integrate
religious symbols into a modern, open economy or isolation and a war of
cultures. Another great challenge is tolerance between religions. Will they
continue to fight with each other or will they allow co-existence with other
faiths and the free choice of people?
The militant isolationist and totalitarian religions are in opposition
to the New Civilisation. They and their representatives form part of the
obstacles to the advent of the new. There is little doubt that the conflicts
arising from the conflict of open societies and cultures will frequently be
based on religious principles. I and inclined to think, however, that the
role of the militant religions will grow only if this is allowed for by
certain preconditions such as poverty and nationalism and the spread of new
utopian ideas.
When in 1991 President George Bush and his aides unexpectedly halted
the American invading force en route to Basra and Baghdad many people could
not understand why he did this. Five years later it is now clear that the
Americans had to choose between the consequences of religious conflicts or
the preservation of the regime of Saddam Hussein. Militant religions can
take power, as they did in Iran or they can halt the processes of
modernisation of entire regions. However, they can do little more since for
the same reasons for which I reject the thesis of S.Huntington I believe
that religious modernism will prevail over fundamentalism.
6. A CUP OF COFFEE IN APENZEL
The defenders of the Third Civilisation do not only live in the poor
countries. A large number of them live in resplendent luxury and comfort or
in conditions of social harmony alien to four fifths of the world. These
people live in the West and do not want global change...
H
ave you ever been to Apenzel? It is a Swiss Canton with a capital of
the same name on the road from the lake of Boden to Liechtenstein. It is the
smallest, best ordered and quietest of all the cantons in the Swiss
confederation. There are no large factories as there are in Basel or the
vanity of the financial centre of Zurich. There are none of the bank
employees forever in a hurry or the limousines of the major banks. Apenzel
has the the cleanest cows in the world, the most beautiful green fields
merging in the distance into the majesty of the Alpine peaks. It is a land
of peaceful, almost invisible work where everyone knows what to do and when
to do it. If you get the chance to go to the capital of the canton, take a
walk across the bridge and a stroll through the little town and you will
feel as though you are in a fairy story. The flowers in the windows, the
decorated roofs of the houses and the hidden little backstreets.
My reason for writing about this is because Apenzel is not only the
smallest and most comfortable canton in Switzerland but also the most
conservative. Here the majority of the people do not want any form of
change. For them Switzerland's membership of the European Union is a
dangerous event with unforeseeable consequences. I stopped in Apenzel for a
cup of coffee and a cake in the summer of 1993 and my contacts with the
local people made a strong impression on me. This was not only because they
had voted against Swiss membership of the EU but for the reasons which they
explained to me.
The people passionately and convincingly did not want to become part of
the united Europe since they were afraid that the underdeveloped European
countries would hold back their development and their towns "would be
invaded by immigrants" and that they were "getting on very well without the
Common Market" etc.. I would not have bothered to mention this event if this
attitude was not repeated in other wealthy parts of the world. One of the
main sources for the rising xenophobia in Germany, France and Austria is
this unwillingness to share their wealth with others and to experience the
risk of cultural intermixing.
In contrast to the supporters of Zhirinovski in Russia who admire his
defence of traditional Russian values or Erbakan in Turkey who advocates the
traditions of Islam against the modern processes taking place in the West my
experience in Apenzel has completely different origins. I could call it
result of "resplendent comfort". Millions of people in Western Europe and
North America are entirely satisfied by their lifestyles and do not want to
jeopardise the status quo. Employment, security, mistrust of other cultures
are reasons for which they prefer nationalism to the open world and the
advent of the New Civilisation.
Do not be angry with the conservatives of Apenzel. This is not an
emotional but a widespread cultural and political phenomenon. It manifests
itself in many forms of protective nationalism and is the social basis for
potential serious conflict against the Fourth Civilisation. About ten years
ago the French Nationalist, Le Pen, seemed a political curiosity, now,
however, he is accepted as something real and necessary by many
intellectuals. Such is the case with the Austrian Nationalist J.Heider whose
party categorically won third place in the country and has even greater
political ambitions.
Thus the defenders of the old civilisation come not only from amongst
the ranks of the fundamentalists, the supporters of Islam or the
ultra-nationalists from the lesser developed countries. They also come from
the West, from its more conservative circles, from people who are frightened
of losing the luxury which they have achieved. Undoubtedly the New
Civilisation will involve the intermixing of cultures and economies, the
global redistribution and harmonisation of resources, production and
benefits. This will also lead to structural changes and even cause
difficulties in the most developed countries of the West. Will the people of
these countries be prepared to concede some of the privileges which their
current state of economic and political advantage allows them?
This "drowning in luxury" will continue to hold back the progress of
the New Civilisation and lead to a variety of conflicts and other hitherto
unknown phenomena. Together with the slow and gradual opening-up of the
world and its cultural intermixing we will also become witnesses to
processes of temporary "closing-up" and the victories of nationalists and
fundamentalists. If in the richer countries of the world those who live in
states of "resplendent luxury" win this battle imperial or neo-colonial
thinking and fundamentalism will inevitably increase.
Section Three
The Alternatives to the Fourth Civilisation
Chapter Eight
THE NEW ECONOMIC ORDER
1. THE ECONOMIC HEART OF THE GLOBAL WORLD
Throughout the whole of the 20th century the economic dependence of
nations grew to become what is the now the nucleus of the New Civilisation.
One essential part of the modern infrastructure is the supra-sovereign
control of nation states. The main question is whether this will lead to a
new economic order or will it revive the familiar conflicts...
T
he economic interaction of countries and peoples is at the basis of
each human community. "Economic interaction" is not always the leading
factor but is does always dominate. It challenges not only the autonomy of
particular communities but also their unification into nation states. The
new elements of the 20th century is that the modern global economy is
becoming less and less an object of control of national governments and is
tending to form its own, independent relations.
This process has been taking place throughout the 20th century. Between
1870 and 1913 world trade increased by 6% annually. Between 1918 and 1938
there was practically no growth. This can be explained by the slow processes
of reconstruction after the First World War, the Great Depression
(1929--193) and the self-imposed isolation of the USSR, Germany and a number
of other countries. After the Second World War international economic
exchange reached it highest level of progress. This was mainly driven by
Western Europe, America and Japan. Between 1946 and 1973 world trade was
increasing on average by 10% and doubled n volume from 1980--1995.
Notwithstanding wars, political confrontation and the accompanying
protectionism, the entire period of the 20th century was a time of expansion
and global economic strengthening. By resolving their conflicts countries
began more and more to see or were forced to see the advantages of the
"open" economy and to accept bi-lateral and multi-lateral customs and trade
unions. The Genoa conference in 1922 and the World Economic Conference in
1927 are of great significance despite the non-implementation of their
decisions as a result of the crisis of 1929 and the Second World War.
On the 30th of October 1947 the General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs
(GATT) was ratified. This was a milestone leading to the removal of trade
discrimination, the consolidation of the principle of "most-favoured nation"
status and the formation of customs unions. Between 1964--1967 the "Kennedy
round" of talks in which 54 nations took part lead to a 35% reduction in
trade tariffs. A further round of talks held in Tokyo in 1979 helped to
further develop this process.
Together with progress in trade there was also significant progress in
economic integration: the complete economic opening of the American states
with each other; the German customs union (1871), the Belgium-Luxembourg
economic union (1921), the European Iron and Steel Agreement and the Rome
Treaty of 1957 on the creation of a Common Market within Europe; the
Committee for Economic Cooperation (COMECON) in Eastern Europe (1949) and
the European zone for free trade (1960). Despite the political, class and
military confrontation of the 20th century there has been a constant process
of opening-up and a reduction in the significance of national borders. This
has expanded with the ratification of the Latin American Association for
Free Trade (LAFTA) in 1960 the Caribbean Common Market (CARICOM) in 1973. At
the beginning of the 1990's a new stage in European integration began with
the reatification of the Maastricht treaty. The NAFTA agreement on free
trade in North America was also signed in 1993.
I mention these facts in order to show once again the constant increase
in the integrational processes taking place within the entire world. As a
result total world trade has grown from 1635 billion USD in 1979 to 1915
billion USD in 1984 to 3667.6 billion USD in 1992. Through the exchange of
goods and services the entire world has become linked within a single
system. The major factor for integration is the exchange of goods in the
area of:
-- communications, including satellite television, international
telephone links and electronic mail, these advances are particularly
significant;
-- petrol which despite a marked decline has continued to account for
one third of world energy consumption;
-- food and raw agricultural products .-- trade with grain, sugar and
coffee are amongst the most important factors;
-- metals and ore;
-- transport and machine building -- planes, cars, ships etc.. the
production of which is continuing to increase.
A significant new phenomenon in recent decades has been the linking of
the financial systems of practically all the countries of the world into a
unified system. In the 16--18th century world trade was carried out on the
basis of national currencies, gold and silver. During this same period
international trade was also based on trade credits and exchange of goods
for goods. It was only in the second half of the 19th century that the most
industrialised countries accepted the gold standard and the predominance of
the British Pound Sterling. Up until the 1930's this system remained, in
general terms, in force.
Later it was replaced by the Brenton Woods agreement and the domination
of the American dollar. At the beginning of the 1970's the Brenton Woods
system gave way to floating exchange rates and open financial and currency
markets. The predominance of the British Pound was undermined as a result of
the reduced importance and the collapse of the British Empire. However, the
reason for the changes which took place in the 1970's was the impossibility
of any single national currency to monopolise international markets. This is
a further demonstration of a common phenomenon, globalisation does not
stimulate monopolies but, on the contrary, it creates the conditions for
their destruction.
In recent decades the world has witnessed the hitherto unseen linkage
of countries and nations via currency and financial mechanisms. The
replacement of the Brenton Woods system was in fact the removal of the last
barriers to the multi-directional fusion of national currencies and exchange
rates and to banking and stock exchange operations. Floating exchange rates
served as a shock absorber for the resolution of differences and a bridge
for overcoming global economic imbalance. During the last 20 years the trade
in securities reached previously unknown levels. The trade in international
bonds has increased from 76.3 to 167.3 billion dollars[54]. In
practice this has meant the growing mutual dependency of capital markets. We
can add to this the enormous increase in Euro-dollar markets. After the fall
of the Berlin Wall the processes of linkage of the capital markets in all
the countries of the world has become undisputed and to a large extent
irreversible.
Another particulary important indicator of this are the currency
policies of practically all the countries in the world. Through a system of
mutual convertibility, the maintenance of official reserves in varying
currencies and the greater independence of commercial banks, the national
economies of countries over the world have become more dependent on each
other. After the beginning of the 1970's the international role of the
dollar began to subside slowly. This could be seen in the reduction in the
size of the official dollar reserves of the industrialised countries to be
replaced in the main by the German mark and the Japanese yen.
Perhaps the clearest indicator of the economic growth of the Fourth
Civilisation is the level of direct investments and the development of
trans-national corporations. In the world today there are 37,000
trans-national corporations with over 170,000 branches. Of these, 24,000
corporations are based in the developed countries, 2700 in the developing
countries (mainly, South Korea, Hong Kong, Brazil and China) and less than
500 in Central and Eastern Europe. In 1992, the global volume of direct
investments reached 2 trillion dollars accounting for a level of sales by
the foreign branches of the trans-national corporations of 5.5 trillion
dollars.[55]
As each year goes by the internationalisation of industry increases
which will lead to the intermixing of cultures, manufacturing structures and
changes in the awareness of billions of people. Everywhere in the world, the
USA or France, Russia or Rumania, Kenya or Ruanda people are becoming more
and more aware of the influence of the world economy on their day to day
life. Most significantly the houses in which we live and the services which
we use are becoming more and more internationalised. I do not know whether
it is an exaggeration to say that the modern citizen of the world is a
"product of the world". Everywhere in the world, even in the most isolated
of countries you will come across cars from the USA, Japan and Germany,
household goods from Italy, coffee and fruit from Latin America, electrical
goods from Hong Kong and Japan, carpets from Iran or Bulgaria and clothes
from China and India etc.. If you take a look at the raw materials used in
the production of the finished goods then you will see the labour and the
talents of millions of people from many countries.
All this might be summed up as two basic phenomena which show the end
of one human civilisation and the beginning of another.
The first of these phenomena is that the mutual dependence of countries
has reached a level at which nation states, autonomous religions and
cultures can no longer historically dominate the processes of integration
and universal human interests. It is true that the danger of new class,
cultural and religious divisions is still possible but the trend towards
world integration is becoming more and more irreversible.
The new factor is that the most integrated regions in North America,
Europe and Japan have created sound economic and financial links with each
other. This has also lead to the involvement of all the remaining countries
in the world in the global economy. If we take foreign investments as our
criteria, we will see that at the beginning of the 1990's the three main
economic centres of the world had direct influence over about 50 other
satellite countries which accounted for over 3/4 of the world economic
product. Today, there is not a single country which can exclude itself from
the world economy without causing serious damage to its own development. The
attempts by North Korea, Iraq and in the recent past, Albania and Cuba to
develop independently in conditions of self-sufficiency have lead to their
economic collapse. The huge level of economic inter-dependence in the world
has lead to more than just closer integration. When different systems grow
closer they form a common, more universal community which is more vital than
any individual national or regional, economic or political force.
The second phenomenon is the formation of economic forces for which
national identity is more formal than essential. Not only in terms of
behaviour, interests and structures these forces belong more to the world
than to any particular nation state. Above all, these are a part of the
trans-national corporations whose economic activities are spread throughout
a number of countries and whose connections and dependencies upon national
governments are of less significance than, for example, the state of the
London Stock Exchange. We could also look at the large number of financial
institutions who operate on a global level not as the citizens of any
particular country but as citizens of the world.
I believe that both the level of mutual economic dependency of
countries as well as the several thousand trans-national manufacturing and
financial corporations form the economic nucleus of the new civilisation. At
the end of the 20th century these structures which control the majority of
world manufacturing and trade are the most powerful globalising force in the
world. The 20th century was a time when the global world was born but also a
time of the creation of supra-national economic structures and the essence
of a new civilisation.
When I speak of the economic nucleus of the Fourth Civilisation, I mean
the influence it has on all areas of life and that the objective changes
brought about by the integration of manufacturing and finances have imposed
profound changes in the world economic order.
2. NEW GROWTH AND NEW STRUCTURES
The trend of the 20th century towards the constant opening-up of
national economies will continue at an increasing rate for the next few
decades. This will cause the wide-scale redistribution of manufacturing
forces and their re-structuring on a branch level. The dynamics of national
and world economic growth will be determined more and more by international
exchange...
T
here is not doubt that the globalisation of the world economy is
accelerating. According to the predictions of the World Trade Organisation
the volume of goods traded in 1995 will increase by 8%. In 1994 this figure
was 9.4%. The fact that during the past ten years, world trade has grown
faster than the annual global domestic product (see table 8) shows that the
integration and opening-up of national borders continues to be a dominant
process.
Table 8
% annual growth
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
World Trade
8,0
2,5
4,1
5,3
7,9
6,5
4,5
3,5
4,0
3,5
9,5
World GDP
6,0
2,4
2,8
2,9
4,9
3,4
0,5
-2
-0,5
0,2
2,4
Source: World Trade Organisation.
How can this phenomenon be explained? Why for the greater part of the
20th century has world trade been greater than manufacturing? My brief
response to these two questions is as follows: the constant growth of world
exchange has been caused not only by the growth of manufacturing but also by
the cultural and political opening-up of countries, the laws of human
progress and technological development. The vast majority of the governments
in the countries of the world realise that the effectiveness of their
efforts and the wealth of their citizens depends on export and their
successful involvement in the international distribution of labour. It has
become beneficial not only to exchange newly manufactured products but also
those products created in the recent past as well as knowledge, services and
personnel.
Of particular significance is the difference between the growth of
trade and the growth in World Gross Product over the past six years
(1990--1995) or since the collapse of the Berlin Wall. There has been a rise
in the levels of export from the most developed nations to Eastern Europe
and Russia and a continuous increase in the exchange of trade with China. In
1984 alone the progressive Asian economies, including China but with the
exception of Japan, achieved a 20% increase in their services trade. There
is a simultaneous related increase in Eastern Asia and Central and Eastern
Europe. There is no doubt that we are witnessing a new rise in world trade
and a reduction in the significance of national borders. If we exclude
Africa and the Near East, there is evidence almost everywhere of a growth in
world trade and the resulting economic revival.
The growth of export is a feature of future change in the structure of
product manufacture. The most dynamic group of new products in recent years
has been telecommunications and office equipment. I believe that
telecommunications will continue to increase their share of world trade and
will be the most dynamic and profitable export area. This will result in
increased communications between people and the intermixing of cultures and
manufacture in the world. Telecommunications are a symbol of the Fourth
Civilisation and the main technological channel for its development.
Clearly telecommunications will continue to contribute to the
re-structuring of social life and the stimulation of growth, the opening-up
of the world and the linkage of millions and billions of people. The main
integrational effect will be the linking of the new communications
technologies to televisions and computer technology. The American media
group "Time Warner" has already developed and begun to market the first
digital interactive television network in the world. Their "Full Service
Network" permits its subscribers to carry out banking operations from home,
to receive information about products, services and events, to buy and to
order and to see new films etc.. Consumers' choice is guaranteed. However,
at the same time, this allows the television companies to guarantee their
monopoly of the market. Whatever happens in the future, there is little
doubt that telecommunications will continue to expand their share of world
trade and be a key factor in economic development and structural and social
changes. Together with world finance which has developed as a result of
improved world communications, telecommunications will continue to be the
most attractive area of the world economy. The Internet has allowed tens of
millions of people over the entire world have become part of a single
network of communications and access to information. Computer networks will
lead to revolutionary changes in finances, trade and manufacturing.
Despite certain serious predictions concerning a fall in profits from
manufacture and sale of aeroplanes[56], I believe that all modern
forms of transport will continue to grow dynamically. People of different
races, ethnic groups and cultures are coming closer to one another, running
to embrace each other. They are beginning to realise how useful it is to
travel together and to meet and use the experience of others.
The conclusion which seems to suggest itself is that the branches of
the Fourth Civilisation (telecommunications, finances, services, computers,
information technology, transport, services etc..) have made life more
integrated and are a product of the new inter-dependency which is required
by humanity. The process will not stop here. On the basis of these key
branches of the New Civilisation, still more, newer, branches will be
formed. Television and telephones will spur the creation of new audio-visual
telephones. Paging systems and mobile telephones will become cheaper and
will allow parents to have more control over their children and to gain
information from their teachers. Doctors and policemen will be called to
where they are needed. This will change politics and management. It will
ease and change ways of voting. There is already software available for
conducting trade over the computer with full legal support.
In ancient times peoples were separated from one another by years of
travel. In the Middle Ages the distance shortened to months. In modern times
distances can be covered in days. In the New Civilisation the whole of
humanity is connected within hours, minutes and seconds. I recently had to
fly from Sofia to Honolulu by Lufthansa and United Airlines. I covered the
distance in 15--16 hours. Twenty time zones to the other side of the globe
in 16 hours! I am convinced that in the Fourth Civilisation people will be
able to circumnavigate the world in less time. Despite the opinions of
certain sceptics I am sure that transport will continue to improve and
develop with leaps and bounds. This applies to car manufacturing, aeroplane
construction, shipbuilding and certain other completely new forms of
transport. This will also provide new prospects for world economic growth.
New technologies will continue to stimulate this growth and the dynamic
processes will never stop despite the critics who believe that the computer
and audio-visual market are already satiated. The limits of high technology
growth and integrational products have not yet been reached.
It is not certain whether this growth will dominate the world economy
as a whole. It is most likely that the next 10--20 years will be years of
technological progress but also slow reconstruction. The lack of
manageability and even elementary order within the world economy means that
it is not clear which of the two will gain the upper hand.
Above all this requires the replacement of old industrial production
with new technology, a pro